Ten years following the UK stumbled into a hasty public vote that split the nation and triggered turmoil, a caution is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the same may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering convulsions for which nobody is equipped.
That is the message from two respected commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a possibly fraught and transformative referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gather momentum very quickly," the commentator said. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our islands remains very unstable."
Book Publication Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The team have studied the political, economic and cultural arguments for any structural alteration in a book, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the matter with a tour of public talks that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts everyone, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a yes-no, vague proposition whose implications have not been spelled out because then you end up with an highly split population where those defeated are not reconciled to defeat and the those successful lack clarity quite what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim such a time is approaching, and a group called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the prospect, making it uncertain if and when there could be a national vote.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has obscured the absence of serious debate, said McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the idea but the actual thinking which may surpass that to achieve it is mostly absent. A lot has gone on in universities but very few elected officials or advocates want to engage with even the essentials. As an example, what sort of state might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, none of the commentators endorses unification or the existing arrangement. Each composes two pieces that strive for impartiality in presenting the argument for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, gathering economic and societal statistics, past examples and structural examples.
Arguments range over flags and symbols, duties, medical care, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The objective is to enlighten and provoke conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there is still lacking a dialogue," commented the writer. "Debate indicates an acceptance of the idea that there may exist valid points on each side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens say they favour unification but reject greater financial contributions or adopting a new flag to recognise pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to establish what the plan from Irish nationalism is aside from just stating: 'We want a unified Ireland and we love you'," said the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
McBride considers a referendum in his era is probable and that it might occur abruptly. "There might be just a mad or a ill-advised or a feckless official who says: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, valid arguments, he stated. "One side will win in this matter and the other side will in the end be defeated but all factions has has something to acquire from the other's arguments."
Appeal for Broader Discussion
Westminster needed to join the dialogue, said the analyst. "This involves Britain. It's a British question equally as it is an Irish issue."
